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27 juillet Déjà VuThe term déjà vu (French: "already seen", also called paramnesia) describes the experience of feeling that one has witnessed or experienced a new situation previously. (From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia)
It is estimated that as many as 97% of people have experienced Déjà Vu.
Scientific hypothesis points to how brain works: ‘Two key processes are thought to occur when someone recognises a familiar object or scene. First, the brain searches through memory traces to see if the contents of that scene have been observed before. If they have, a separate part of the brain then identifies the scene or object as being familiar. In deja vu, this second process may occur by mistake, so that a feeling of familiarity is triggered by a novel object or scene.’
Here is the experitment 11 juillet 张五常：中国愤青为什么爱骂人from 南方日报 http://www.popyard.com/cgi-mod/npost.cgi?num=97777&r=0 国内的青年----尤其是愤青----是不喜欢提出问题的。他们给我的感受，不是高傲，也不是无心向学，而是自以为是，以不知为知之，把世界看得太简单了。他们通常不知道问题的所在就提出自己的观点，对错分明，不考虑灰色地带，推理逻辑一塌糊涂。 先天有幸，怎会有这样不幸的后天现象 呢？想了好一阵，我的解释是愤青不问起于文革与思想教育。文革三十年前玩完了，但其后遗症可以隔代相传。那些霸气十足，有「清算」味道的文革意识，今天国 内的青年有之。至于国内还在推行的思想教育，是教答而不教问。有点改进，但当年的思想教育，是要受教而不准问的。 告诉国内的青年一个秘密吧。你要在经济分析的内容上难倒我这个老人家，成功机会是零。但如果你提出一个天真的浅问题，有机会盲拳打死老师傅。当年我就是这样求学，这样杀出重围的。 17 juin 英国的电视机执照税(TV license) I注：全世界只有不多的几个国家收电视机执照税 - 不是闭路电视月租 - 是买电视机就要交的年税。这个费用主要是拿来养BBC。英国国民不少人反感，外国人更觉不习惯。 最近我在一个论坛上和一网友(flywhc)就此有一番争论(全文见此)。此为第一部分 整个话题是flywhc打开的： 至于TV license，没有区别。我是坚决不交，不给反华口舌一分钱。
如果担心被抓被罚钱，请参考这里： http://www.tvlicensing.biz/ 如果有空的话很想写一篇如何反TV license的帖子。 然后我说: fine as an individual choice NOT to pay TV license.硬要扣‘反’不‘反’华的帽子，给自己的‘义举’涂金就牵强了吧？？ 然后flywhc说： BBC的运营费用基本从TV License里出。
BBC的reporter基本是逢中必反，给它钱打自己脸作什么。 那些烂节目不看也罢，凭什么看其他频道也要给BBC钱？ 100多镑平均下来每月也就10几镑，但这种没有道理的钱一定不给它。 然后我开始逐句点评： flywhc: BBC的运营费用基本从TV License里出。
我: That is true. It pays for high quality programs like Blue Planet, Planet Earth, Top Gear, Question Time and Radio 1-7, World service, bbc.co.uk etc. It also pays partly for Channel 4. 我: 虽然本人觉得钱可以用得更有效率，(比如C4的有些节目) - 的确以商业化取代现在的License不失为一更好选择. 但在没有商业化以前，不交就是违反这个国家法律(尽管这个法是不公平的)。Full top。
flywhc: BBC的reporter基本是逢中必反
我: 是否应该说他们逢极权/暴政/不平( 苏丹，日本捕鲸，缅甸...)说话都不是按‘主子’的意思呢？ flywhc: 给它钱打自己脸作什么。
我: 何为‘反’,何为‘顺’？ 我不认为BBC打的是我的脸. 我: 奴才才把主子的癞痢当珍宝
我: 受不了‘西方的指手划脚’大可不必煎熬自己，何苦拿顶大帽子给自己的违法行为做遮盖。 然后 flywhc阐述了他的观点：见英国的电视机执照税(TV license) II英国的电视机执照税(TV license) II注：全世界只有不多的几个国家收电视机执照税 - 不是闭路电视月租 - 是买电视机就要交的年税。这个费用主要是拿来养BBC。英国国民不少人反感，外国人更觉不习惯。 最近我在一个论坛上和一网友(flywhc)就此有一番争论(全文见此)。此为第二部分 flywhc说 不交的理由很多，那个网站列出来了，就算是英国人也有大量不交的，而且不是因为缺钱，而是这费收得没有理由。最早工业化最早运营电视的国家居然几十年无法商业化国家电视台？靠TV LICENSE养著怎么就能保证言论中立性？靠这个不用竞争就白拿的铁饭碗就能有更High quality? 没有一点逻辑性。
比如说胡温新政有成就了，或者载人航天成功了，最后结尾肯定是“However...”中国仍然有很糟糕的人权，不许西藏独立，不许台湾独立…… 跟此条新闻原本的话题一点都扯不上关系。而中国的坏事，比如某些犯罪，则会扯到政府人权，腐败……
就算所有的国家宣传机器都这样，我有义务为自己的祖国付这笔帐，但我凭什么为别人的“主子”付帐呢？
── 同样的法理，只要它无法证明我下了并且观看了盗版，法律上我就是无辜的。
反正总共就能收到那么几个破台，一年也开不了几次TV，不如在线看的爽。
好久不看BBC了，大概他们有所改变，大概因为最近中英关系上政治经济需要，BBC这宣传机器也改变论调了。 只是就算它整天吹捧中国，也并没有改变TV License的不合理不合法性. 我是这么评点的：见英国的电视机执照税(TV license) III 英国的电视机执照税(TV license) III注：全世界只有不多的几个国家收电视机执照税 - 不是闭路电视月租 - 是买电视机就要交的年税。这个费用主要是拿来养BBC。英国国民不少人反感，外国人更觉不习惯。 最近我在一个论坛上和一网友(flywhc)就此有一番争论(全文见此)。此为第三部分 看了 flywhc的文章，我是这么评的:flywhc: 不交的理由很多，那个网站列出来了，就算是英国人也有大量不交的，而且不是因为缺钱，而是这费收得没有理由。最早工业化最早运营电视的国家居然几十年无法商业化国家电视台？ 我: 我从来没说收TV LICENSE是合理的。但不合理不等于不合法。以违法行为对抗不合理 的法律只能说是个人行为。
flywhc: 靠TV LICENSE养著怎么就能保证言论中立性？靠这个不用竞争就白拿的铁饭碗就能有更High quality? 没有一点逻辑性。
flywhc: 不交TV License的法理也有，尽管是违法的，但此法有悖消费自由的法理，甚至有悖欧盟宪法； 我: 到底TV LICENSE有没有违法，违反那条法,我不知道。但是如果TV LICENSE本身是违法的，估计早被上诉了吧？
flywhc: 此外TV LICENSE的收费公司用欺诈手段收费，其实他们根本没有有效的检测仪器，而且检测出来也无法作为上庭证据，他们也无权未经允许进房检查，更无法检测出是否看BBC电视节目。 我: 的确这点是TV LICENSE里最让人反感的地方。
flywhc: 就是说，这个费用从来就没有一个公平的收费尺度和依据。
flywhc:从这角度来说，我不交是合法的，因为的确我没有在家收看BBC。就算我无法证明我没看，同样收费公司也无法证明我有电视机。
flywhc:用中国的政治污点丑化全面的国人和国家形象，它侮辱的是中国人和国家，作为有中国人，何谈“奴才”？就算所有的国家宣传机器都这样，我有义务为自己的祖国付这笔帐，但我凭什么为别人的“主子”付帐呢？ 我: 我一直把‘中国’ ‘中华人民共和国’ ‘中国人’ ‘政府’ ‘祖国’ ‘执zheng Party'这几个概念分得很开. 不知你怎么看？
flywhc: ── 同样的法理，只要它无法证明我下了并且观看了盗版，法律上我就是无辜的。 我: 用此逻辑，法律证明不了你杀人，你的确可以逍遥法外。但你是否无罪呢？ 我: 再给你提供点弹药：NHS费了200亿搞了个屁出来，英国政府拿纳税人的钱去打仗。他们都不合理。你应该说，如果不是收工资的时候给扣了我才不交呢。 足球博彩里的风险谷歌了一下什么是‘风险’，随手抄起这篇介绍基因和 DNA的文章。从医学角度，他是这么样介绍的：什么是风险？ 医生在向患者或其家属谈到风险的时候，有三点因素决定他们如何解释‘风险’： 1 可能的结果；2 各种情形发生的机会；3 时间因素；
结果 就是最后的终局了。 例如,结果可能是你得了癌症或者只是感冒。人们往往在后果严重的时候，风险意识更重。10%得癌症的可能性往往看起来比10%患感冒的风险更大。机会 这是有可能的结果发生的机率。 举例来说，考虑癌症的风险时，我们会比较病变的机率和误诊的可能性。机会通常以百分比表示相对关系。时间因素 这是指风险延续时间。比如你今年是否会生病？不大会，那未来 25年呢? 长时间呈现的风险看起来要比短期的要高。等待的时间越长，事件就越有可能发生。一个健康的人眼下患癌症的可能性很小，但以下半生来比较这个可能性就大的多。套用这三个因素，我来试试解释足球博彩里的风险。 英国庄家一般是这样操作足球博彩的。赛前先根据双方实力计算赔率 (x/y) 为投注额，x 为回报。赔率公布后，庄家根据彩池下注情况随时调整赔率。对于庄家来说，规避风险是最重要的 - 不是和客户对赌。庄家提供一个交易场所，通过调节赔率来吸引/排斥赌客向某一赌项下注。最终趋向赌客们的赌注平衡掉风险。当某一赌项投注过大，风险积聚过大而无法平衡时，庄家就会停止接受新投注。立博在2006年6月11日英国对巴拉圭的那场小组赛时就停了英国3:0的投注。开赛后，部分赌项继续接受投注，赔率随场上情况变得更快。通过网络投注的朋友可能深有体会。紧张起来，赔率是每秒钟不停更新的。 上面说了庄家的目的是规避风险。而赌客呢是利用足球博彩获取最大利益。从这个角度来说，这个交易场所实际上是赌客们互相出售交换风险承受指数的场所。 风险的三点因素：结果，机会和时间对赌客来说意味什么呢？ 结果 互据排他性的同一类的各赌项都是可能产生的结果。比如英国对巴拉圭 1:0 和1:1。但1:0和英国队应并不排他，是可能同时发生的赛果。机会 观察各非排他性的赌项来说，博彩的赔率是根据他们可能发生的机会来定的。这个机会划分得很细 - 预期越精确，发生机会越小，赔率越高。比如‘英国赢上半场-全场’ 为1/3，而‘英国赢’为1/6。时间 开赛后不止是投注比例了，庄家更多地是看时间来调制赔率。 时间越接近终场机会窗口越小，从而逆当前局面的赔率越高，顺当前局面的赔率越低。6月16墨西哥对安哥拉那场，墨西哥是热门。赛前独赢赔率4/9，到最后10分钟逐渐变到2/1。而平局赔率则在最后越跌越快。那到底结论是什么呢？分析完庄家开盘原理和风险。我的结论是：赌球风险与赔率还有你的下注没有任何关系。 虽然你可能会觉得下了大注风险骤然上升; 或者高赔率项目上下注，心理上可能会觉得风险减小不少。不是的，风险始终没有变 - 赔率大小反映了大众对赛事的展望。对于严谨的赌客来说下10快钱和下100块也是一样的。如何巧妙分散风险才是他们首要考虑的。因为球是圆的。
要想试试就 加入我推荐的这个英国博彩网站吧。他们的信誉很不错的(具体原因不便明说) - 赔率比立博好，现在还有彩金送。13 février There's No Such Thing as a Free LunchThere's No Such Thing as a Free Lunch by Milton Friedman, Chicago
U economist, 1976 Nobel Prize in Economics. The book is about the ecosystem of free
markets and political freedom. Milton’s theory is that: the move towards open market policies improves the economic situation as well as political situation towards democracy. Milton gave a series of speeches during his visit to Chile in 1975 during the military dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet. Pinochet regime was replaced by a democrat government in 1990. Milton has also visited China and other former Socialist states. This book is on my reading list after Globalization and Its Discontents. I am interested to look further on the rationale in Milton’s theory and apply it to my lenses of analysis. I want to know why political reform stalled in China. What’s the impact of it? What could happen next? How long the resistance could last? What may be the ice breaker of the situation? Should have a chance to finish it before end of the year. 7 février Human responses to severe lossRecently I came across a few ‘help me’ posts on a community forum (BBS) on an issue that the guy is the victim of a credit card fraud that rendering him/her received no payment for the goods he/she sold and delivered. Quite a large sum of loss lets say. By no means to be sinister, this brings me to the attention of how human reacts to severelosses and massive huge adversary facts to their live. Based on the model developed by Elizabeth Kubler-Ross (On death and dying 1969 New York: Simon and Schuster.), there are five distinct stages: numbness/denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance.
1. Communicating the news and seeking help (2nd-4th Feb) 2. Denial and anger 4th Feb. Evidence 1: “(4th Feb 2006) ... I would rather get killed (than paying for the loss). I would rather close the PayPal account.” Evidence 2: “I think the insurance company should pay for the loss”. 3. He/she is at bargaining stage at the moment. Evidence 1: “(7th Feb 2006)So what would happen after (Paypal’s) investigation? It is obvious (to me) the buyer is using frauded credit card. How can Paypal protect buyer and penalise innocent seller’
Stay tuned. 11 janvier The Art of InnovationGood read. 7 décembre Google's Ten Golden Rulesknowledge workers believe they are paid to be effective, not to work 9 to 5, and that smart businesses will "strip away everything that gets in their knowledge workers' way (Peter Drucker)
Hire by committee
Cater to their every need.
Pack them in
Make coordination easy
Eat your own dog food
Encourage creativity
Strive to reach consensus
Don't be evil
Data drive decisions
Communicate effectively 23 novembre Google Print and long tail" ...if enough people found out about your book that way it might even go back in print, which would be beneficial to you"
"...And it (Google Print) was, quite frankly, a delight: for us in the UK at the moment, the bookshops are stocking fewer and fewer titles, so a good honest browse is becoming a rare pleasure. Yet isn't this how books get discovered and read?
For the past twenty years, the bookshops here have been relying on the same tired formula to shift units: the 'three for two' bargain"
Associate his back to the Principle of The Long Tail, what we can see is Google Book Search can greatly help us on finding what we need with zero cost. It is a good news to all because it is 'book search' not 'book online'. 'For reader(obviously), for author(potentially more selling), for libraries(higher turnover), for publishers(less cash flow required for ready print) and the top winner is online lending/bookshop because warehous stocking cost much less than high street shelf space.
21 novembre Do you own a book?How do you prove you 'own' a book? I offer some ideas here. You can argue: -- I have a physical copy lays in my book shelf, hence I own the book. -- I don't have a copy of it myself, but I think I own the book because I read it. That is right, my brain owns it.
So and so, any more arguments?
15 novembre The Long Tail EconomyIn this article Chris Anderson explains a new economy theory of the Internet era. Using Amazon, iTunes, Rhapsody (music download), Netflex (online DVD rental) etc as examples, following characteristics of the Long Tail are unfold: 1. The new economy is one based on abundance, infinite availability and unlimited shelf space. This drives Internet companies like Amazon, iTunes and NetFlix. 2. Economy and culture is shifting from mass market (the red end) to millions of niches (the yellow end). 3. Demands for niches grow infinitively. When logistic and other physically issue is no more a bottleneck for making them available (because of the cost), total demands of niches have a par with demands for hits. – Potential market may be as twice as big as it appears to be.
When you think about it, most successful businesses on the Internet are about aggregating the Long Tail in one way or another. Google, for instance, makes most of its money off small advertisers (the long tail of advertising), and eBay is mostly tail as well - niche and one-off products. By overcoming the limitations of geography and scale, just as Rhapsody and Amazon have, Google and eBay have discovered new markets and expanded existing ones.
And the rules of riding the Long Tail economy: Make everything available Cut the price in half. And lower it. Help me find it. (e.g. Amazon Recommendation, reviews) 3 novembre 猴子经济学 Keith Chen's Monkey Research耶鲁经济学家 Keith Chen认为‘"经济学从更本上来说是研究人是如何对激励(物质，精神等)做出反应, 猴子也不例外。"
Chen 的研究包括教猴子使用货币，观察他们如何预算生活。他发现猴子和人一样会理性判断简单物质刺激。非理性面对风险赌博。不会存钱。有机会会做做宵小，会花钱买食物。偶尔会去嫖。 近一步讲，他们面对风险的态度和证卷投资者差不多。 非常有趣的科普读物.
'economics is in essence the study of incentives, and how people -- perhaps even monkeys -- respond to those incentives.'
When taught to use money, a group of capuchin monkeys responded quite rationally to simple incentives; responded irrationally to risky gambles; failed to save; stole when they could; used money for food and, on occasion, sex. In other words, they behaved a good bit like the creature that most of Chen's more traditional colleagues study: Homo sapiens.
There are interesting experiements on tamarin monkeys that extreme selflish jerk and altruistic stooge; on gambling, on stealing; even observation that monkey sell sex!!!!
Read the full article by STEPHEN J. DUBNER and STEVEN D. LEVITT
25 octobre Google Print and Asymmetric Information SharingThose read my blog before remember I recommend Steven Levitt’s Freakonomics as an entry reading on applying economic theories onto social phenomenon. Now here is a perfect case study of asymmetric information sharing.
Google CEO Eric Schmidt recently published their view point on Google Print. In short, Google is trying to scan and index every book in the world so they can provide a FREE index and search service to Internet users. The search result may contains a few lines from the book. In a non-technical nutshell, the idea is similar to they index and search most websites in the www.
However, this is blocked by the publisher community, fearing Google breach copyrights. I am sure not website will complain Google breach their copyright.
So what may exactly publishers and maybe ‘elite’ domain experts really fear of?
I reckon is Google print may enhance the power of breaking asymmetric information sharing. Everyone can now 'own' the knowledge with a very low entry barrier (Learning curve, cost, time).
In the future, you don’t need to be a knowledge owner – domain expert. You only need to be an expert of asking question. You got the answers instantly if you could ask right questions.
Like Utopia comes true. 24 septembre Lion DanceLion Dance is the most celebrated event in about 15 days Chinese New Year festival. Dancing groups parade the street at the 4th day of the New Year.
It is art based on martial skills and imitation of a lion's body movements, normally performed by two persons follows beating rhythm of drums and Luo (a metal beating instrument). Lion Dance is also very popular for celebration events such like new business open, joyous ceremonies, particularly in Guangdong province. My home town is the origin place of southern-style lion dance. The other one is northern style. Southern style lion is bigger, more abstract in its form, and has more aggressive and challenging action. Northern style lion are fully fledge custom, it is smaller, address the subtle details like small kicking, shaking tail, eye movements, but equally thrilling when the performers take it to the 2 meters high poles and dance it like one on the ground. 18 septembre Breeze, Bloom, Snow, MoonVisited British Museum yesterday. This is my third or forth visit in last three years. Still I found something new every time.
What is it?
What are these Breeze Bloom Snow Moon all about?
Why this porcelain pillow is interesting? My personal view is that it probably served its life in a very unusual place and very unusual way. As I said before Chinese are subtle and delicate (the other words are ‘awkward’ and ‘shy’) on expressing feeing, it is uncommon to declare romantic. Not even in the private life. Having this pillow in the bedroom I think, is probably equivalent to a public declaration of adultery. I guess this pillow is come from a brothel house (or ‘Qing Lou’ as Chinese put it), probably a courtesan’s bedroom. In ancient time, a ‘Qing Lou’ is typically set in form of a restaurant and hotel complex. Individual dinning rooms are created for privacy. And there are courtesan’s bedroom for serving clients. It is an entertainment club for the elite, wealth and official class. People visit ‘Qing Lou’ normally for social connection and relaxing. You pick your courtesan on arrival. Of course, just like in anytime that supply and demand rule rules, hot celebrities dominates and hard to come by. People sing poem, draw water color painting, and play music at the grand dinning. There are lot of love tragedies between courtesan and her client in Chinese literatures. Probably in the shadow of prevailing arranged marriage, ‘Qing Lou’ is the most romantic place one can go for. 10 septembre Burgundy Pinot Noir and California Pinot NoirI have got both Burgundy and California Pinot Noir. Reputaion of Bourgogne (Burgundy Pinot Noir) is due to a number of factors. Its vineyards slope gently down toward the East, providing the vines with long sun exposure yet avoiding afternoon heat. The soil there is very calcareous (chalky; containing calcium carbonate), offering good drainage. Well-drained soils have a higher average temperature, which assists ripening. Pinot noir seems to reflect more pronounced Gout de Terroir, or flavor of the soil, than other black grape types, making vineyard site selection a critical factor. California Pinot Noir is a light, fruity wine of no consequence. The best reating vineyards are: Santa Maria Valley (Santa Barbara County); Russian River Valley (Sonoma County); Carneros (in both Sonoma and Napa Counties); Anderson Valley (Mendocino County); as well as the Pinnacles (Monterey County) and, recently, Santa Lucia Highlands (Monterey County).
9 septembre Freakonomics (II)By studying the 90s astonishing crime drop in US, Steven uses factual arguments to proof that it wasn’t Innovative policing strategies, nor Increased reliance on prisons nor Changes in crack and other drug markets nor others but is a result of legalization of abortion. Correlation is nothing more than a statistical term that indicates whether two variables move together... (but) with hundreds variables things get harder. Regression analysis solves this problem by artificially holding constant every variable except the two being studied, then showing how those two co-vary.
Risk = Hazard + Outrage When hazard is high and outrage is low, people under-react. When hazard is low and outrage is high, they overreact.
Last and probably most interesetingly names are indicators of social classes. Based on Califonia statistic data of forty years, there is a trend of most common ‘high-end’ and ‘low-end’ name. For example in 90s: Most Common ‘high-end’ white girl names:
Most Common ‘low-end’ white girl names:
If you think to name the baby as in the high-end list, and she will then in the high-end social class, you would be wrong. Compare this data set with the most popular names in 80s and 90s, Steven discovers that those popular names are most likely end up in the ‘low-end’ list on next decade. The pattern, as Steven puts: Once a namecatches on among hin-income, higly educated parents, it starts to working is way down the socioeconomic ladder.As a high-end name is adopted en masse, high-end parents begin t abandoned it. Eventually, it is considered so common that even lower-end parents may no want it, whereby falss out of the rotation entirely.
Conclusions: 1) Estate agent’s interests on selling your house is to sell it quick rather than sell it at the right (higher) price. 2) Drug dealers live with their mom because they are living at the bottom of the food chain.
You can buy this book from Amazon at £12.00 (my copy is sold on eBay for £9.00 :-) ) |
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